@InProceedings{PereiraBeneAlme:2011:DyMoCh,
author = "Pereira, Rudiney Soares and Benedetti, Ana Caroline Paim and
Almeida, Cl{\'a}udia Maria de",
affiliation = "{} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Dynamic Modeling for Changes Simulations in the Forest Cover in
Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil",
booktitle = "Proceedings...",
year = "2011",
organization = "FIG Working Week 2011. - Bridging the Gap Between Cultures.",
publisher = "International Federation of Surveyors - FIG",
note = "Setores de Atividade: Agricultura, Pecu{\'a}ria,
Produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o Florestal, Pesca e Aq{\"u}icultura, Pesquisa
e desenvolvimento cient{\'{\i}}fico. and
{Informa{\c{c}}{\~o}es Adicionais: Work presented in the oral
session entitled {"}Spatial Information Processing II - TS09C{"}
on 05/21/2011..}",
keywords = "remote sensing, NDVI, dynamic modelling, transition matrix.",
abstract = "Significative processes of conversion in the land use patterns
have been verified in the State of Rio Grande do Sul due to the
incorporation of forest areas during the last years. In this
conception, this work aims to establish the methodological
guidelines to analyze the dynamics of these patterns in the Serras
do Sudeste and Campanha Meridional, which are micro regions
located in the southern part of the State. Thematic maps from the
years 2000, 2004 and 2008 were elaborate through the product NDVI
(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) from the MODIS sensor in
a way to relate this index to the land use classes. The maps that
we elaborated were used to drive a dynamic model, which made it
possible to quantify, through the use of Markov model, the
conversion rates between classes. The simulation designed using
the probabilistic method weighs-of-evidence, and allowed to assess
the role of influential variables in the forest cover changes of
both micro regions. The main results are simulations based on the
paradigm of Cellular Automata (CA), in which the forest areas are
quantified and spatially distributed until the year 2016. The
predictions modeled, based on the considered variables, indicate
that the forest will expand over spaces previously allocated to
agricultural activities and to extensive grazing of cattle, either
with the introduction of exotic species or by means of
regeneration. The forest cover in Serras do Sudeste will increase
from 8,6% to 16,2% by the end of the period. In Campanha
Meridional the increase will be from 11,1% to 12,5% and, in both
micro regions, the expansion will tend to stabilize within the
observed period.",
conference-location = "Marrakesh, Marrocos Marrakesh, Marrocos",
conference-year = "2011",
label = "lattes: 1861914973833506 3 PereiraBeneAlme:2011:DyMoCh",
language = "en",
targetfile = "pereira_dynamic.pdf",
url = "http://www.fig.net/fig2011/",
urlaccessdate = "08 maio 2024"
}